Macro Trend Raises Confidence in TopGun Analysts
TOPGUN PRESS: TORONTO — (October 12, 2010) – Performance consultants, Brendan Wood International (BWI) today announced the results of the 30th annual compilation of domestic and international investor views, for the first time pairing shareholder ratings with those of transactionally active Canadian corporations.
This enhanced 360° views the analysts, sales and trading teams reflects the current markets and signal a re-integration of dealer research with the interests of both investors and corporations, despite modern regulations which discourage the relationship between the two. “Investors and corporates both feel very differently in the current markets,” says Brendan Wood, Chairman of Brendan Wood International.
Index investing and other macro trends leave investors, especially value investors in a tough and uncertain world. Companies are having a difficult time separating themselves from the pack, amongst investors. Stocks are presently moving in tandem with the markets as opposed to their own particular attributes. Investors are looking for analysts and sales professionals to distinguish corporate stories which have the ability to rise above macro market themes.
Likewise corporations are connecting analysts with the task of communicating the relevance of their corporate story in a heavily market centric investment climate. Corporate finance mandates are being aligned with dealer firms whose analysts are perceived to be able to make their corporate story relevant to investors.
Canadian small/mid-cap corporations follow the trend, in that their selection of investment banks during 2010 was heavily influenced by research coverage.
The relationship/dialogue with investors provided by TopGun analysts continues to play a key role in the ‘vote to pay’ polls and the commission flows. This also points to a business increasingly dependent on the quality of coverage and relevance, therefore a declining demand for written reports of a general or generic nature on sectors.
Historically, institutional investors have paid 39% of their commission dollars for research on average over the last five years. This figure shot up to 48% in 2010. Canadian analysts, TopGuns in particular, are here to stay.
TopGun analysts, while comprising only 15% of the analyst population covering Canadian stocks, generate approximately 50% of commissions allocated for research.
Individuation of stocks is the key theme in 2010. Investors are looking for insight on “names” (companies) which will not just outperform in earnings or value appreciation but to whom investors will react in their stock selection. Analysts are now more relevant for their “bellweather” roles, speaking not just on a company’s inherent qualities but also as a pollster for the attitudes of investors toward a name which may outperform the neutralizing effect of the macro market.
In 2011 Brendan Wood partners expect the alignment of TopGun Analyst accreditations from both corporates and investors to be a dominant economic factor in the industry. Polls which only consider general investor opinion may miss the mark on where the money is. Analysts who create relevance on specific names will play an increasing role in generating banking fees and commissions for their employer firms. Today’s regulatory themes and rituals discourage those connections but industry economics make the TopGuns who connect both ways much more viable. Corporates and investors are connecting through TopGun researchers in very important ways. Is history repeating itself, again?
The 2010 TopGun Analysts and Teams As Ranked by Investors Are:
Sector |
#1 TopGun Analyst |
#2 TopGun Analyst |
#3 TopGun Analyst |
#1 TopGun Team |
Alternative Energy |
Rupert Merer (NBF) |
MacMurray Whale (COR) |
Carolina Vargas (CLA) |
NBF |
Banks |
Andre-Philippe Hardy (RBC) |
Mario Mendonca (CG) |
Kevin Choquette** (SCO) |
RBC |
Base Metals |
Greg Barnes (TD) |
Fraser Phillips (RBC) |
John Redstone (DES) |
DES |
Biotechnology & Healthcare |
Doug Miehm (RBC) |
Lennox Gibbs (TD) |
Hari Sambasivam (NBF) |
RBC |
Chemicals & Fertilizers |
Sam Kanes (SCO) |
Jacob Bout (CIBC) |
Brian MacArthur (UBS) |
SCO |
Consumer Products |
Perry Caicco (CIBC) |
Irene Nattel (RBC) |
Michael Van Aelst (TD) |
RBC |
Diversified Financials |
Geoff Kwan (RBC) |
John Reucassel (BMO) |
Kevin Choquette (SCO) |
BMO |
Economics |
Myles Zyblock (RBC) |
Sherry Cooper (BMO) |
John Aitkens (TD) |
RBC |
High Tech |
Richard Tse (*Ex-NBF) |
Mike Abramsky (RBC) |
Chris Umiastowski (TD) |
RBC |
Income Trusts (Royalty) |
Menal Patel (NBF) |
Jeremy Kaliel (CIBC) |
Roger Serin (TD) |
NBF |
Index Analysis |
Peter Haynes (TD) |
Mark Steele (BMO) |
Andrew Moffatt (SCO) |
TD |
Industrial Products |
Ben Cherniavsky (RJ) |
Peter Sklar (BMO) |
Sara O’Brien (RBC) |
BMO |
Insurance |
Mario Mendonca (CG) |
Andre-Philippe Hardy (RBC) |
Tom MacKinnon (BMO) |
CG |
Media |
Drew McReynolds (RBC) |
Adam Shine (NBF) |
Tim Casey (BMO) |
TD |
Merchandising |
Perry Caicco (CIBC) |
Irene Nattel (RBC) |
James Durran (NBF) |
CIBC |
Oil & Gas – Large Cap |
Randy Ollenberger (BMO) |
Greg Pardy (RBC) |
Peter Odgen (NBF) |
BMO |
Oil & Gas – Small/Mid Cap |
Martin Molyneaux (FE) |
Rafi Khouri (RJ) |
Brian Kristjansen (CG) |
FE |
Oil & Gas Equipment/Services |
Roger Serin (TD) |
Andrew Bradford (RJ) |
Kevin Lo (FE) |
TD |
Portfolio Strategy |
Peter Gibson (CIBC) |
Myles Zyblock (RBC) |
John Aitkens (TD) |
CIBC |
Precious Metals – Large Cap |
Tanya Jakusconek (NBF) |
Barry Cooper (CIBC) |
Michael Jalonen (BAML) |
NBF |
Precious Metals – Small/Mid Cap |
Trevor Turnbull (SCO) |
John Hayes (BMO) |
Craig West (GMP) |
BMO |
Pulp, Paper & Forest Products |
Sean Steuart (TD) |
Paul Quinn (RBC) |
Richard Kelertas (DUN) |
TD |
Quantitative Analysis |
Peter Gibson (CIBC) |
Mark Deriet (COR) |
Christopher Dutton (TD) |
CIBC |
Real Estate, REITS |
Neil Downey (RBC) |
Karine MacIndoe (BMO) |
Michael Smith (MAC) |
RBC |
Small Cap/Special Sits |
Anthony Zicha (SCO) |
Sarah Hughes (COR) |
Frederic Bastien (RJ) |
SCO |
Software & Services |
Mike Abramsky (RBC) |
Richard Tse (*Ex-NBF) |
Steven Li (RJ) |
RBC |
Technical Analysis |
Dennis Mark (NBF) |
Christopher Dutton (TD) |
Ray Hanson (RBC) |
NBF |
Telecommunications |
Glen Campbell (BAML) |
Dvai Ghose (CG) |
Vince Valentini (TD) |
BAML |
Transportation |
Walter Spracklin (RBC) |
Fadi Chamoun (BMO) |
David Newman (*Ex-NBF) |
BMO |
Utilities |
Matthew Akman (MAC) |
Robert Hastings (CG) |
Linda Ezergailis (TD) |
MAC |
*Moved to Cormark Securities Sept 7, 2010.
**Tied ranking for #2.
The 2010 TopGun Analysts and Teams As Ranked by Corporates Are:
Sector |
#1 TopGun Analyst |
#2 TopGun Analyst |
#3 TopGun Analyst |
Alternative Energy |
Rupert Merer (NBF)* |
|
|
Base Metals |
David Charles (GMP) |
Tom Meyer (RJ) |
Adam Schatzker (RBC) |
Chemicals & Fertilizers |
Jacob Bout (CIBC)* |
Robert Winslow (WW) |
|
Diversified Financials |
Gabriel Dechaine (CS) |
Phil Hardie (SCO) |
Paul Holden (CIBC) |
Income Trusts (Royalty) |
Jonathan Fleming (COR) |
Cristina Lopez (MAC) |
Roger Serin (TD)* |
Industrial Products |
Ben Cherniavsky (RJ)* |
Bert Powell (BMO) |
Cherilyn Radbourne (TD) |
Insurance |
Kevin Choquette (SCO) |
Tom MacKinnon (BMO)* |
Andre-Philippe Hardy (RBC)* |
Media |
Adam Shine (NBF)* |
|
|
Oil & Gas – Large Cap |
Brian Dutton (CS) |
|
|
Oil & Gas – Small/Mid Cap |
Mark Leggett (BMO) |
Peter Doig (GMP) |
Rafi Khouri (RJ)* |
Oil & Gas Equipment/Services |
Dana Benner (SN) |
Andrew Bradford (RJ)* |
Keivn Lo (FE)* |
Precious Metals – Large Cap |
George Albino (GMP) |
Tanya Jakusconek (NBF)* |
Barry Cooper (CIBC)* |
Precious Metals – Small/Mid Cap |
Daniel Earle (TD) |
Andrew Kaip (BMO) |
Andrew Mikitchook (GMP) |
Pulp, Paper & Forest Products |
Stephen Atkinson (BMO) |
Richard Kelertas (DUN)* |
Sean Steuart (TD)* |
Real Estate, REITS |
Alex Avery (CIBC) |
Neil Downey (RBC)* |
Michael Smith (MAC)* |
Small Cap/Special Sits |
Frederic Bastien (RJ)* |
Greg Colman (WW) |
Sara Elford (CG) |
Software & Services |
Todd Coupland (CIBC) |
|
|
Telecommunications |
Glen Campbell (BAML)* |
Greg Macdonald (NBF) |
|
Utilities |
Matthew Akman (MAC)* |
Robert Hastings (CG)* |
Patrick Kenny (NBF) |
*Denotes SuperLeague Analysts, those who are TopGuns among both investors and corporates.
The 2010 SuperLeague and TopGun Teams Ranked by Institutions and Corporates:
Sector |
TopGun Institutional Team |
TopGun Corporate Team |
SuperLeague Team |
Alternative Energy |
National Bank Financial |
National Bank Financial |
National Bank Financial |
Base Metals |
Desjardins Securities |
RBC Capital Markets |
|
Chemicals & Fertilizers |
Scotia Capital |
Scotia Capital |
Scotia Capital |
Diversified Financials |
BMO Capital Markets |
Credit Suisse |
|
Income Trusts (Royalty) |
National Bank Financial |
Macquarie Bank |
|
Industrial Products |
BMO Capital Markets |
Raymond James |
|
Insurance |
Canaccord Genuity |
BMO Capital Markets |
|
Media |
TD Newcrest |
National Bank Financial |
|
Oil & Gas – Large Cap |
BMO Capital Markets |
CIBC World Markets |
|
Oil & Gas – Small/Mid Cap |
FirstEnergy Capital |
Wellington West Capital |
|
Oil & Gas Equipment/Services |
TD Newcrest |
Stifel Nicolaus |
|
Precious Metals – Large Cap |
National Bank Financial |
National Bank Financial |
National Bank Financial |
Precious Metals – Small/Mid Cap |
BMO Capital Markets |
GMP Securities |
|
Pulp, Paper & Forest Products |
TD Newcrest |
BMO Capital Markets |
|
Real Estate, REITS |
RBC Capital Markets |
RBC Capital Markets |
RBC Capital Markets |
Small Cap/Special Sits |
Scotia Capital |
Raymond James |
|
Software & Services |
RBC Capital Markets |
CIBC World Markets |
|
Telecommunications |
Bank of America Merrill Lynch |
Bank of America Merrill Lynch |
Bank of America Merrill Lynch |
Utilities |
Macquarie Bank |
Macquarie Bank |
Macquarie Bank |
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