Whose Victory Will Boost US Equity Investment?
Harris vs. Trump Global Investor Poll
Cumulative Results
September 27th to October 14th 2024
Trump Factor + 19%
Trump net increase +17%
Harris net increase – 2%
Equity Exposure if Donald Trump wins Election
Increase = 37%
Static = 43%
Decrease = 20%
Equity Exposure if Kamala Harris wins Election
Increase = 22%
Static = 54%
Decrease = 24%
“Through our partnership with Brendan Wood International (BWI), we at Tuttle Capital Management, and other investors of all stripes, receive the results of BWI’s personal discussions with portfolio managers concerning investment convictions on a stock by stock basis for the year ahead. BWI partners also query big cap investors about their oncoming exposure to equities. In this case the upcoming election is seen as a pivotal event in terms of investor conviction in the post election environment. I therefore welcome Brendan Wood’s invitation to moderate the discussion of the results of this study as the results accumulate on a daily basis. Signifying the interest in the subject, so far investor participation in the post election discussion is 100%.” Matthew Tuttle, CEO, Tuttle Capital Management
Lastest Institutional Investor Quotes:
“If Kamala gets elected, I would neither increase nor decrease my equity exposure because she is almost status quo with what we have right now. She is talking about increasing taxes, which is not great, but at least you avoid the chaos that a Trump administration would cause. If you reduce some consumer discretionary spending because of increased taxes, that is one thing, but most of those increased taxes are only going to be for people at income levels $400K and above. For the most part, the US economy can keep chugging along, which will pull the rest of the things along with it. In the meantime, it may just allow the fed to continue to do what it is doing with slowly cutting rates, which could be positive for the economy and metals. The market would not like Kamala as much at the outset as they would Trump because they really do want the immediate satisfaction of tax cuts. But over a four-year term, stability might be more beneficial for resources.”
“In terms of whether or not I would increase equity exposure if Trump gets elected, my answer would change depending on where in his term we are. Initially, I would say it would dampen my appetite for resources. But at some point later on, particularly for gold, I would significantly increase. That would be in year two or three of his term. Initially what I am expecting is the markets doing well in his first term. He is talking tax cuts again, which the market is going to like. The market could respond favorably in November or December of this year, and early into 2025 if he gets elected. But his tariff proposals are a total scorched-earth and very inflationary. The market only looks so far ahead, so they are mostly looking at the tax cuts and not so much the tariffs. If he puts through those tariffs, it is going to increase inflation a lot, which means the fed will have to stop cutting rates. That would be negative for gold. Initially, if markets do well, they would not need the safe haven of gold. In the long term, you could get rates going up, but a lot of instability in gold.”
“If it is Harris, I would not be surprised if the market goes down the day after the election. However, I think the market will be better in six months under Harris because she is not going to have crazy tariffs.”
“I do believe that Trump is better for the market in general than Harris.”
“If Kamala gets elected, I think it would be good for our exposure. There would maybe be some concern around financial regulations because she has kind of spoken about that a little bit and corporate tax rates. Part of the trouble is they say things and then what they actually implement is another thing. She has certainly been very supportive of clean energy, and I think she would be good for the renewable energy sector if she were to come into power. From a personal and an investment point of view, I really hope Harris does win.”
“I think investors will increase their equity exposure post-election regardless of who wins because we will have that clarity and an end to all the uncertainty.”
“Trump is sometimes considered more shareholder-friendly, but I do not know if he really would do much in the stock market in the near term.”
“The stock market would react well to a Trump win on a one-month basis but it will not be sustainable.”
“The election is a market mover because there are a lot of people looking at it, but it will not materially impact the way that I allocate capital.”
“If Kamala Harris wins the US Presidential Election this year, I will reduce my investment in equities due to potential corporate tax and consumer confidence issues.”
“Trump is likely to permit everything, build everything, and stimulate. Even if the opposite is true, rates should be independent of the President, and lower rates should support copper, uranium, and precious names.”
“If Trump wins, I would be mad bearish on consumer stocks. Anything that has a big import would be in jeopardy. The tariffs angle is going to be a real theme if Trump gets elected.”
“Republicans are viewed as a bit more hands-off for regulatory items, especially in managed care and some of the drug pricing.”
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About Brendan Wood International:
Brendan Wood International (BWI), formed in 1970, is a private advisory group which originates performance investigation programs in the capital markets. Relying on its real time intelligence, BWI advises public companies, institutional and activist investors, investment banks and broker dealers on strategy, performance and recruitment of TopGun talent. Big cap companies looking for comprehensive investor confidence data on their organizations are likely to discover that Brendan Wood partners consult with their investors non stop year round. There are 2000+ live consultations with investment professionals overseeing +/- $60 trillion invested in the +/- 1400 big cap companies on the BWI Index. Investors depend on BWI to quantify the demand side of the investment industry, including the name by name research sales and trading professionals who influence investor demand. The firm’s partners have formally presented at 1000+ C level strategy meetings and corporate off-sites in fifty cities. Brendan Wood founded the exclusive TopGun Club, a performance based institution.
About Tuttle Capital:
Long established as an innovative creator of unique ETFs, Tuttle Capital is led by impresario Matt Tuttle. Tuttle Capital is the investment advisor of the Brendan Wood TopGun ETF.
Tuttle Capital
Disclosure:
All reports, evaluations and assessments contained herein, represent Brendan Wood International’s subjective judgment and opinions, based on our years of experience and on information obtained by us in the course of our research. Much of the factual information contained in the reports has been obtained by us from third parties on whose responses we have relied in good faith, independent verification by Brendan Wood International being, under the circumstances, impossible. While we believe that you will find our reports to be an invaluable tool in formulating your own strategies and judgments, the foregoing should be borne in mind. This report is not meant as investment advice and should not be interpreted as advising on the value of a company’s securities, the advisability of investing in, purchasing or selling any company’s securities or any other conclusion relating to investment/divestiture of a company’s securities. Finally, this report is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any company’s securities.
Contacts:
Matthew Tuttle
Moderator
CEO
Tuttle Capital Management
mtuttle@tuttlecap.com
Jordan Novak
Managing Partner
Brendan Wood International
+1 416 924 8110
jnovak@brendanwood.com
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